Prolific Programmer on the Internets!

I realise the economy is in the shitter, but I found the advert amusing.

Throughout the 1980s, Japan was heralded as a model for close governmental cooperation with industry, legendary work ethic, and mastery of high-technology. Then, in the early 90s, all the pointing to Japan as a model stopped. The economic growth fell to less than 1% (and negative in some quarters).

Replace the word Japan with the words United States and replace 1980s with 1990s and 90s with 2000s, and the phrase is still, largely, true.

Why hasn't this been realised? Part of it has to do with legendary geographical prowess and historical awareness. Any other ideas? From my vantage point, the similarities are striking.

Robert Scoble seems to think a recession is afoot and provides 19 ways to live through it. I have my own tips for easing the blow of an economic downturn:

1. If possible, pay off as much debt as you can. Variable interest rates on non-asset backed instruments, like credit cards, fluctuate wildly, Further, because you do have the possibility of being out of a job, you might need to have some savings. Also, remember that the Fed funds rate rises to cause a recession and fall until the economy recovers by controlling the amount of money available for investment.
2. Train for jobs in a different industry. It's rare that the world experiences a total recession in every field.
3. Look overseas. It's rare that a recession is worldwide. Even during the Great Depression, developing countries like Argentina and Uruguay were booming. For the coming recession, I'd bet on areas with fossil fuel resources, like Canada or Qatar.

Scoble seems to suggest that paying $50 for coffee and pastries in Paris is a sign of a coming recession. It is, but not how he puts it. Exchange rates drop both during a boom and a bust. The signs of a coming downturn are found in the answer to the question what lies behind the drop in the dollar?

In this instance, the dollar has dropped because of the increased national debt, and the end of the petrodollar. How to determine which areas of the world will be booming through this are identifying those countries whose currencies are tied to the new currency of commodities (my guess is that it will be the Euro) or looking at the producing countries.