Using VC Portfolios to Predict Bubbles
John Robb writes on predicting black swans using the content of Kleiner Perkins' portfolio. This is a continuation of a conversation started Saturday evening over dinner on figuring out how to predict the next big bubble, now that the real estate market is suffering meltdown.
I wonder if setting up some sort of prediction market and letting random people bid on the likelihood of a certain industry becoming a bubble would work. Perhaps we can get John to weigh in on his thoughts.
UPDATE
John weighed in that bubbles are too infrequent for a prediction market to be of much use.
The Blogosphere as a Futures Market
| Sex and the City | Get Smart |
|---|---|
Based on a buzz search on Technorati, I predict that Get Smart will bring in move money than Sex and the City. Some things to note. The spike in mentions of Sex and the City is because it comes out this weekend. A better metric is to study the spikes before each respective film opens, giving us a pre-film boost of less than a thousand mentions. Come June, I ought to redo this entry and see if a more clear picture comes out. Another possible error source is that the blogosphere itself, mainly that it skews young and male.
