Using VC Portfolios to Predict Bubbles
John Robb writes on predicting black swans using the content of Kleiner Perkins' portfolio. This is a continuation of a conversation started Saturday evening over dinner on figuring out how to predict the next big bubble, now that the real estate market is suffering meltdown.
I wonder if setting up some sort of prediction market and letting random people bid on the likelihood of a certain industry becoming a bubble would work. Perhaps we can get John to weigh in on his thoughts.
UPDATE
John weighed in that bubbles are too infrequent for a prediction market to be of much use.
